Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of prices in the dairy sector in Cotopaxi

Abstract

The article explores the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dairy sector in Cotopaxi, Ecuador. It analyzes the evolution of raw milk prices and their relationship with various economic and production variables before, during, and after the pandemic. A quantitative approach was used, involving data collection from reliable sources such as the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) and the Central Bank of Ecuador. Time-series analysis revealed a significant change in the median and dispersion of prices during the pandemic. This suggests that COVID-19 had an impact on the stability of raw milk prices. A multiple linear regression model was applied to assess the relationship between raw milk prices and several independent variables, such as food inflation, public credits in the bovine sector, and the family basket. This model showed a high coefficient of determination (R^2 = 0.8012), indicating that these variables are significant in explaining the variability in raw milk prices in the region. The article concludes that, although there was a slight price increase during the pandemic, milk production was adversely affected due to business closures and declining sales. The multiple regression model provides an effective tool for predicting and understanding changes in raw milk prices based on the analyzed variables.